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Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis

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  • Ash, J. C. K.
  • Smyth, D. J.
  • Heravi, S. M.
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-3V8TNV4-7/2/3e46167a93fc2061cccfe627a110f2db
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 381-391

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:3:p:381-391

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Smyth, David J & Ash, J C K, 1981. "The Underestimation of Forecasts and the Variability of Predictions and Outcomes," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 37-44, May.
    2. Holden, Karen C & Peel, D A & Sandhu, B, 1987. "The Accuracy of OECD Forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 175-86.
    3. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    4. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
    5. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
    6. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1993. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts for Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 179-210.
    7. Mostaghimi, Mehdi & Rezayat, Fahimeh, 1996. "Probability Forecast of Downturn in U.S. Economy Using Classical Statistical Decision Theory," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 255-79.
    8. Mittnik, Stefan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 205-08, April.
    9. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1994. "The rationality of the OECD foreign-balance forecasts for the USA," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 435-443, November.
    10. Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
    11. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1990. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy : Demand, output and prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 379-392, October.
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