Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding
AbstractUsing forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some forecasters seem to forecasts under an asymmetric loss function, symmetry of the loss function cannot be rejected for other forecasters. An asymmetric loss function does not necessarily make survey data of exchange-rate forecasts look rational, and the loss function seems to depend not only on the forecast error.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 201202.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Exchange rate; Forecasting; Loss function;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-03-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2012-03-08 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dan Bernhardt & Murillo Campbello & Edward Kutsoati, 2002.
Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University
0213, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997.
"Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss,"
97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," NBER Technical Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
- Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009.
"Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function,"
Macroeconomics and Finance Series
200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-18.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," KOF Working papers 09-237, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew Patton, 2004.
"Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity,"
wp04-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
- Dufour, J.M., 1979.
"Rank Tests for Serial Dependence,"
Cahiers de recherche
7815, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. " Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
- Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph R�lke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1759-1763, December.
- G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009. "Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrich Fritsche).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.