Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?
AbstractWe show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 108 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Forecast evaluation Federal Reserve Systematic errors Recessions;
Other versions of this item:
- Tara Sinclair & Frederick L. Joutz, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2008-06, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
- Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006.
"Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
- Swanson, N.R. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2001. "Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry," Econometric Institute Report EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts,"
2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts,"
AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201213, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
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