Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?
AbstractWe show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 108 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Forecast evaluation Federal Reserve Systematic errors Recessions;
Other versions of this item:
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- Tara Sinclair & Frederick L. Joutz, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2008-06, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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"Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates,"
2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts,"
2012-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
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