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Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists

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  • Mitchell, Karlyn
  • Pearce, Douglas K.

Abstract

Recent work on expectations suggests that professional forecasters may have incentives that lead them to make more extreme forecasts than they would make were accuracy the only criterion. We use the interest rate and exchange rate forecasts from the Wall Street Journal?s panel of economists to investigate this issue. We examine the unbiasedness and forecast accuracy of individual forecasters, finding that several forecasters produce biased forecasts and most forecasters cannot out-predict a random walk model. Our tests show evidence of systematic heterogeneity across forecasters and are consistent with independent forecasters making more radical predictions than forecasters from financial institutions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 840-854

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:29:y:2007:i:4:p:840-854

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Cited by:
  1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 16-29, November.
  3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  4. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "A note on the anti-herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 665-673, October.
  5. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
  6. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
  7. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.
  8. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  9. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Koske, Isabell & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Exchange rate expectations: The role of person specific forward looking variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 221-223, December.

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