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The strategy of professional forecasting

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Author Info
Ottaviani, Marco
Sorensen, Peter Norman

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 81 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 441-466
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:81:y:2006:i:2:p:441-466

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
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  3. Eugene Kandel & Ben-Zion Zilberfarb, 1999. "Differential Interpretation Of Information In Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 217-226, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1985. "Delegated portfolio management," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Zwiebel, Jeffrey, 1995. "Corporate Conservatism and Relative Compensation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gul, Faruk & Lundholm, Russell, 1995. "Endogenous Timing and the Clustering of Agents' Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 1039-66, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns Of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  19. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1991. "Luck versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 49-74, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Sorensen, 1999. "Professional Advice," Game Theory and Information 9906003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Sorensen, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 695-704, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Osband, Kent, 1989. "Optimal Forecasting Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1091-1112, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Avery, Christopher N. & Chevalier, Judith A., 1999. "Herding over the career," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 327-333, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2006. "Reputational Cheap Talk," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 155-175, Spring.
  36. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1994. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1998. "Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 768-805, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  41. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  46. Osborne, Martin J & Pitchik, Carolyn, 1986. "The Nature of Equilibrium in a Location Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 223-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lanne, Markku, 2007. "The Properties of Market-Based and Survey Forecasts for Different Data Releases," MPRA Paper 3877, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "The CNBC Effect: Welfare Effects of Public Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1312, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 08/119, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nevzat Eren & Han N. Ozsoylev, 2008. "Hype and Dump Manipulation," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Juan Angel García & Andrés Manzanares, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results - evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2002. "Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk," Discussion Papers 02-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2004-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sean D. Campbell & Steven A. Sharpe, 2007. "Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "A model of near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  14. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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