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The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years

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  • Dean Croushore

Abstract

The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 15-27

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1997:i:mar:p:15-27

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Keywords: Forecasting ; Livingston Survey;

References

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  1. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1995. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 95-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
  3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
  4. Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. " Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 921-31, September.
  5. Pearce, Douglas K, 1984. "An Empirical Analysis of Expected Stock Price Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 317-27, August.
  6. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-36, April.
  7. Tanzi, Vito, 1980. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 12-21, March.
  8. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
  10. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  11. Herb Taylor, 1992. "The Livingston Surveys: a history of hopes and fears," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 15-27.
  12. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dean Croushore, 1996. "Inflation forecasts: how good are they?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-25.
  14. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August.
  15. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  16. Gibson, William E, 1972. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 854-65, December.
  17. Dokko, Yoon & Edelstein, Robert H, 1989. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 865-71, September.
  18. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1984. "A comparison of inflation forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 327-348, May.
  19. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 663-73, June.
  20. Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
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