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Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research

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  • Dean Croushore

Abstract

For almost 20 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has conducted both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey. Both surveys of private-sector forecasters provide researchers, central bankers, news media, and the public with detailed forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. The surveys have proved helpful for people who are planning for the future, and they have also provided useful input into the decisions of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. In “Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value for Research,” Dean Croushore provides an overview of the survey and discusses the ways in which researchers have used the survey.

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File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2010/q3/brq310_philadelphia-fed-forecasting.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): Q3 ()
Pages: 1-11

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2010:i:q3:p:1-11

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Keywords: Federal Reserve banks ; Economic forecasting;

References

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  1. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
  2. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-48, May.
  3. Steven A. Sharpe, 2001. "Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  5. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
  6. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
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