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Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Laurence Ball
Dean Croushore

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Abstract

This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. We find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output, suggesting that agents underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand. Our results help to explain the real effects of monetary policy, and they provide a strong rejection of the rational expectations hypothesis.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5344.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5344

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
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  3. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Working Papers 4765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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  16. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  23. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  32. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 33-63 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hamid Baghestani, 2008. "Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 47-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1998. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 98-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198a, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sean Campbell & Canlin Li, 2003. "Per Capita Consumption, Luxury Consumption and the Presidential Puzzle: A Partial Resolution," Working Papers 2003-18, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 198, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gilberto Libânio, 2008. "A Note on Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth in Brazil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211614210, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  11. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198nv, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2002. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and The Cost of Disinflation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003770, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. ""Good governance" in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td277, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  15. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  16. repec:att:wimass:1920120 is not listed on IDEAS
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