This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation Regimes and the

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Evans, Martin
Wachtel, Paul

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper develops new time series measures of inflation uncertainty in the United States in the postwar period that account for the prospect of changing inflation regimes. The measures are constructed from estimates of a Markov switching model for inflation. Importantly, we show that rational forecasts derived from the Markov model are consistent with survey measures of inflation expectations. Our Markov model allows us to decompose uncertainty about future inflation into two components; a certainty equivalent component that ignores uncertainty about future inflation regimes, and a regime uncertainty component that reflects this uncertainty. Survey measures of inflation uncertainty, based on the dispersion of forecasts, appear more closely associated to the regime uncertainty component than the certainty equivalent component of inflation uncertainty. The regime uncertainty component also appears to have significant explanatory power in forecasting unemployment while the certainty equivalent component does not. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%28199308%2925%3A3%3C475%3AIRATSO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B&origin=bc
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 25 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 475-511
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:3:p:475-511

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Guerrieri, Luca, 2002. "Persistent Issues in Inflation Persistence," Review on Economic Cycles, International Association of Economic Cycles, vol. 5(1), December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Luca Guerrieri, 2002. "The inflation persistence of staggered contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 734, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2002. "Stability Analysis of a High-Dimensional Macrodynamic Model of Real-Financial Interaction: A Cascade of Matrices Approach," Working Paper Series 123, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael S. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1996. "Are federal funds rate changes consistent with price stability? Results from an indicator model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 45-51. [Downloadable!]
  7. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  9. Juan Ayuso & Graciela L. Kaminsky & David López-Salido, 2003. "Inflation regimes and stabilisation policies: Spain 1962-2001," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 615-631, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke & Willi Semmler, 2001. "Real-Financial Interaction: Integrating Supply Side Wage-Price Dynamics and the Stock Market," Working Paper Series 112, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  11. J. Ayuso & G.L. Kaminsky & D. López Salido, . "Inflation regimes and stabilization policies, Spain 1962-1997," Studies on the Spanish Economy 10, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 55, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.