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Blue Chip Rationality Tests

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Author Info
Batchelor, Roy
Dua, Pami

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Abstract

This paper tests the rationality of forecasts made by individuals who contribute to the Blue Chip consensus forecasting service and tries, by means of a questionnaire on forecasting methods, to establish why some forecasters appear more rational than others. Tests based on consensus forecasts prove unreliable as guides to the number of individuals who produce rational forecasts. Individual forecasts are more likely to be rational if they are based on a mainstream economic theory and incorporate a substantial element of judgment. Copyright 1991 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 23 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 692-705
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:23:y:1991:i:4:p:692-705

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77. [Downloadable!]
  6. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Working Papers 200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using Survey Data," Working Papers 200007, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725. [Downloadable!]
  11. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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