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Inflation forecasts: how good are they?

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Author Info
Dean Croushore

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Abstract

Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think

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File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/1996/may-june/inflation-forecasts.cfm
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 15-25
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1996:i:may:p:15-25

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting ; Inflation (Finance);

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1997. "Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts," Staff Reports 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1995. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Austin Murphy & Anandi Sahu, 2001. "Empirical evidence of a positive inflation premium being incorporated into stock prices," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(2), pages 177-185, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lloyd B. Thomas Jr., 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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