This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation forecasts: how good are they?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Dean Croushore

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-review/1996/may-june/inflation-forecasts.cfm
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 15-25
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1996:i:may:p:15-25

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574
Web page: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.phil.frb.org/publicaffairs/pubs/index.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Forecasting ; Inflation (Finance);

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1997. "Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts," Staff Reports 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1995. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Austin Murphy & Anandi Sahu, 2001. "Empirical evidence of a positive inflation premium being incorporated into stock prices," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(2), pages 177-185, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lloyd B. Thomas Jr., 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over five million full texts a year are downloaded through IDEAS.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.