Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market
AbstractForecasts of macroeconomic variables as the inflation rate serve as important guidelines for the private as well as the public sector. At least central banks that adopted an inflation targeting regime are in urgent need of high quality inflation forecasts. Accurate inflation forecasts are also needed within private sector wage negotiations. In this paper we present a new method to predict future inflation via conducting electronic markets. We show at the example of a prototype market how the market data of such an experimental market can be used to generate predictions of the future inflation rate. We also show that the market data provide important evidence on the distribution of inflation expectations. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics in its series Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 06/01.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Inflation Forcasting; Inflation Targeting; Electronic Markets;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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