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The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Aaron Drew
Ben Hunt (Reserve Bank of New Zealand )
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This paper outlines how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) is used to prepare the quarterly economic projections. In addition to a very brief overview of the system, the paper focuses on four key issues. First, the current methodology for incorporating a time-varying equilibrium path for the economy is presented. Second, the process for building up the central scenario through the application of judgement is outlined. Third, the use of alternative scenarios for testing the implications of key assumptions embodied in the central scenario is discussed. Finally, the technique employed to examine the implications that unforseen shocks have for the projections is discussed.
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number
G98/7.
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Length: 34p
Date of creation: Oct 1998Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1998/07Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 2498, Wellington Phone: 64 4 471-3767 Fax: 64 4 471-2270 Email: Web page: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre).
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: James Breece & Vincenzo Cassino, 1998.
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
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Svensson, L-E-O, 1996.
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Aaron Drew, 2001.
"Lessons from Inflation Targeting in New Zealand ,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
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Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003.
"Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Michael Woodford, 1999.
"Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability? ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
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Aaron Drew & Adrian Orr, 1999.
"The Reserve Bank's role in the recent business cycle: actions and evolutions ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin ,
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
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Mike Frith & Aaron Drew, 1998.
"Forecasting at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin ,
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, December.
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Peter Mikek, 2004.
"Inflation targeting and switch of fiscal regime in New Zealand ,"
Applied Economics ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 165-172, February.
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James Twaddle & David Hargreaves & Tim Hampton, 2006.
"Other stabilisation objectives within an inflation targeting regime: Some stochastic simulation experiments ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2006/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves, 2003.
"A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy ,"
Treasury Working Paper Series
03/25, New Zealand Treasury.
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Troy Matheson, 2005.
"Factor model forecasts for New Zealand ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
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Matheson, Troy D, 2006.
"Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand ,"
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"Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand ,"
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[Downloadable!] John B. Taylor, 2000.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules ,"
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