This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher Ragan (Bank of Canada)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to compare the nominal yields on two assets of different maturities and attribute the difference in nominal yields to differences in expected inflation over the two horizons (assuming a constant term premium). The results for the United States and Canada over the past several years suggest that there is a significant static element to agents' inflation expectations. A l'aide de la structure par terme des taux d'interet nominaux, l'auteur etablit sur plusieurs horizons de prevision a moyen terme des estimations des anticipations d'inflation que forment les agents economiques. L'hypothese d'anticipations de la courbe de rendement est retenue conjointement avec celle selon laquelle les taux d'interet reels futurs anticipes sont donnes par les taux reels du moment. Sous ces deux hypotheses, il est possible de comparer les taux de rendement nominaux de deux actifs a echeances differentes et d'attribuer l'ecart entre ces taux aux divergences entre les taux d'inflation anticipes sur les deux horizons (en supposant que la prime payable a l'echeance est constante). Les resultats obtenus pour les Etats-Unis et le Canada au cours des dernieres annees laissent croire que les anticipations d'inflation des agents economiques sont en grande partie statiques.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1995/wp95-1.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 95-1.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:95-1

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

Order Information:
Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Email:
Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, . "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Lown, Cara S, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1994. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Econometrics 9406002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 135-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-16.
  7. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "The Information In The Term Structure: Some Further Results," Papers fb-_88-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    Other versions:
  9. Pesando, James E, 1978. "On the Efficiency of the Bond Market: Some Canadian Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1057-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hugo Oliveros C., 1999. "Expectativas:Una Aproximación A Través De Modelos De Escogencia Discreta," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002697, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Angelo M. Fasolo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: a New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  3. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Seminar Papers 594, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hugo Oliveros, . "Expectativas: Una Aproximación a Través de Modelos de Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  10. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use convenient plug-ins to search directly IDEAS from your browser.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.