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Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?

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Author Info
Karen K. Lewis
Martin D. Evans

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Abstract

This paper presents a new explanation for the negative correlation between ex post real interest rates and inflation found in earlier empirical studies. We begin by showing that there is a strong negative correlation between the permanent movements in ex post real interest rates and inflation. We argue that such a correlation can arise when people incorporate anticipated shifts in inflation policy into their expectations. Under these circumstances, a shift to lower (higher) inflation will lead to systematically higher (lower) ex post real rates. Using new time series techniques we are able to reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates were unaffected by anticipated switches in inflation policy in the post-war era. To evaluate the impact of these switches, we then calculate the effects of inflationary expectations upon real rates using a Markov switching model of inflation. Inflation forecasts based upon the estimates of this rational model behave similarly to inflation forecasts from the Livingston survey. When ex ante real interest rates are identified with the Markov models of inflation, we find that ex ante real interest rate does not contain permanent shocks, nor is it related to permanent shocks in inflation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4134.

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Date of creation: Aug 1992
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Publication status: published as "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fischer Relation? Journal of Finance, March 1995, vol.50, pp.225-253.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4134

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Trends in Expected Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 4116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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