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Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets

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Author Info
Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia (Departemente de sciences economiques, Universite de Montreal, CP 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montreal (Quebec), H3C 3J7, Canada)

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Abstract

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the central bank. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that financial markets perceive the band to be of approximately the same width as announced but asymmetrically distributed around the official target. This finding suggests that, in practice, the monetary authority might attach different weights to positive and negative inflation deviations from the target. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 483-512
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:5:p:483-512

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002. "A Prudent Central Banker," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2002. "Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy," Cahiers de recherche 06-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de España Working Papers 0106, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002. "A Prudent Central Banker," IMF Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, vol. 49(3), pages 7. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility," Working Papers 0124, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2002. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlos Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2005-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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