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Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology

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  • Pierre St-Amant

Abstract

In this paper, the author uses structural vector autoregression methodology to decompose U.S. nominal interest rates into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. He identifies inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rate shocks by assuming that nominal interest rates and inflation expectations move one-for-one in the long-run - they are cointegrated (1,1) - and that the real interest rate is stationary. He finds that changes in inflation expectations and in the ex ante real interest rate are both important in explaining fluctuations in the U.S. 1-year and 10-year government bond rates. The author also finds that, while the increase in the 1-year and the 10-year bond rates in the 1970s and the early 1980s mainly reflects higher inflation expectations, changes in ex ante real interest rates appear to account for most of the fluctuations in these rates in 1994 and in the first half of 1995.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9602004.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 23 Feb 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9602004

Note: 19 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
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References

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. George Evans & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10155, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10159, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Alain DeSerres, & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, . "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
  5. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada.
  7. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  9. Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
  12. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
  14. Christopher Ragan, 1995. "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Macroeconomics 9502003, EconWPA.
  15. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," NBER Working Papers 5080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1989. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 933, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  20. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  21. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hugo Oliveros, . "Expectativas: Una Aproximación a Través de Modelos de Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Van Norden, S. & Vigfusson, R., 1996. "Regime-Switching Models, A guide to the Bank of Canada Gauss Procedures," Working Papers 96-3, Bank of Canada.
  3. Hugo Oliveros C., 1999. "Expectativas:Una Aproximación A Través De Modelos De Escogencia Discreta," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002697, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada.
  5. Dopke, Jorg & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2006. "When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-135.
  6. Ulrich Fritsche & Jörg Döpke, 2005. "Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy: A Non-Linear Relationship?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 498, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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