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Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy : A Non-Linear Relationship?

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Author Info
Ulrich Fritsche
Jörg Döpke

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Abstract

The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear relation between forecast errors and macroeconomic fundamentals and find evidence for such a non-linearity for inflation forecasts. Evidence from probit models further suggests that some macroeconomic fundamentals - especially monetary factors - correlate to large positive or negative forecast growth and inflation forecast errors.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 498.

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Length: 27 p.
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp498

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Related research
Keywords: Forecast error evaluation Non-linearities Business cycles

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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  1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2003. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," NBER Working Papers 9866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  4. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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