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The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market

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  • Carlo Rosa
  • Giovanni Verga

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of European Central Bank communication on the price discovery process in the Euribor futures market using a new tick-by-tick dataset. First, we show that two pieces of news systematically hit financial markets on Governing Council meeting days: the ECB policy rate decision and the explanation of its monetary policy stance. Second, we find that the unexpected component of ECB explanations has a significant and sizeable impact on futures prices. This indicates that the ECB has already acquired some credibility: financial markets seem to believe that it does what it says it will do. Finally, our results suggest that the Euribor futures market is semi-strong form informational efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0764
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    Cited by:

    1. Mickaël Clévenot & Ludovic Desmedt & Matthieu Llorca, 2010. "Le banquier central, du mutisme à la communication permanente : la tonalité du discours de la B.C.E. et son impact," Post-Print hal-01089003, HAL.
    2. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.
    3. Rosa, Carlo, 2008. "Talking less and moving the market more: is this the recipe for monetary policy effectiveness?: evidence from the ECB and the Fed," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Owain ap Gwilym & Samir Aguenaou & Mark Rhodes, 2009. "The determinants of trading volume for cross-listed Euribor futures contracts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 89-102.
    5. Sahminan, Sahminan, 2007. "Financial Market Responses to Bank Indonesia’s Policy Announcements," MPRA Paper 93401, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market efficiency; central bank communication; news shock; tickby-tick Euribor futures data; event-study analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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