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Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology

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Author Info
Alain DeSerres
Alain Guay
Pierre St-Amant

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Abstract

In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and that the international price of oil is exogenous to the Mexican economy in the long term. They then calculate potential output by adding the world oil and supply components to the drift in output. They find that world oil shocks have been an important source of both actual and potential output fluctuations over a sample period extending from 1965 to 1994. However, they also find occurrences of important gaps between actual and potential output.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9504003.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 26 Apr 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9504003

Note: 24 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report. Bank of Canada
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  9. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. John Boschen & Leonard Mills, 1990. "Monetary policy with a new view of potential GNP," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-10. [Downloadable!]
  13. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierre St-Amant, 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9602004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nicholas Ricketts & David Rose, 1995. "Inflation, Learning and Monetary Policy Regimes in the G-7 Economies," Macroeconomics 9506004, EconWPA, revised 15 Feb 1996. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simon van Norden & Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Regime-Switching Models: A Guide to the Bank of Canada Gauss Procedures," Econometrics 9603004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Finance 9602003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "El Producto Potencial en Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nicholas Ricketts & David Rose, . "Inflation, Learning And Monetary Policy Regimes In The G-7 Economies," Working Papers 95-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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