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Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Evans, George W
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one (I (1)). This paper considers the multivariate generalization of the BN decomposition when the information set includes other I (1) and/or stationary variables. We show that the relative importance of the cyclical component depends on the information set, and in particular that multivariate BN decompositions necessarily ascribe more importance to the cyclical component than does the univariate decomposition, provided the information set includes a variable which Granger-causes output. We illustrate the results for post-war data for the United States.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 756.

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Date of creation: Jan 1993
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:756

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Cycle; Forecast; Granger Casuality; Information; Integrated Series; Trend;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Ben Smit & Le Roux Burrows, 2002. "Estimating potential output and output gaps for the South African economy," Working Papers 05/2002, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot & Drew Creal, 2006. "The Relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition andUnobserved Component Models with Correlated Shocks," Working Papers UWEC-2006-16-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2005. "Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0501, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Banco de España Working Papers 0009, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21. [Downloadable!]
  12. Plato, Gerald & Hoffman, Linwood, 2007. "Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37568, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  13. Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting Trend Output in the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 26245, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Jérôme Glachant, 1994. "Sur la convergence des mesures de persistance relativement à la fréquence d'échantillonnage," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 35, pages 05, Juillet-S. [Downloadable!]
  15. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1994. "Is the Business Cycles a Necessary Consequence of Stochastic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alain DeSerres, & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, . "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  18. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2004. "Inside the black box: permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  19. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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