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A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

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  • Dupasquier, Chantal
  • Guay, Alain
  • St-Amant, Pierre

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 577-595

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:21:y:1999:i:3:p:577-595

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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References

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  1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  2. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  3. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George Evans & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10155, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  6. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  8. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D S, 1996. "Specification of Echelon-Form VARMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, January.
  9. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, octubre-d.
  10. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
  11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  14. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
  15. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. John Boschen & Leonard Mills, 1990. "Monetary policy with a new view of potential GNP," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-10.
  17. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," FMG Discussion Papers dp126, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  19. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  20. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  21. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  22. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 47, pages 2843-2915 Elsevier.
  24. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA.
  25. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hyeon-seung Huh & David Kim, 2013. "Do SVAR Models Justify Discarding the Technology Shock-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis?," Working papers 2013rwp-59, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  2. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  3. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 155, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
  5. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  6. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
  7. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  8. Yetman, James, 2000. "Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty," Working Papers 00-10, Bank of Canada.
  9. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Exciess Demand," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  10. Schumacher, Christian, 2002. "Forecasting Trend Output in the Euro Area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 543-58, December.
  11. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2007. "Identifying the Shocks Driving Inflation in China," Working Paper Series 34-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  13. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  15. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.

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