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A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

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  • Dupasquier, Chantal
  • Guay, Alain
  • St-Amant, Pierre

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 577-595

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:21:y:1999:i:3:p:577-595

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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References

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  1. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
  2. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identi- fication and Some Theoretical Bounds," NBER Technical Working Papers 0106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  5. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  6. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  7. Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
  14. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA.
  15. D.S. Poskitt, . "Specification of echelon form VARMA models," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9305, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  16. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  17. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April.
  18. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  20. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30, January.
  21. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  22. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  23. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  24. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  25. John Boschen & Leonard Mills, 1990. "Monetary policy with a new view of potential GNP," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-10.
  26. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2007. "Identifying the Shocks Driving Inflation in China," Working Paper Series 34-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  2. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. James Yetman, 2000. "Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility And Optimal Learning Under Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 181, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
  5. Hyeon-seung Huh & David Kim, 2013. "Do SVAR Models Justify Discarding the Technology Shock-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis?," Working papers 2013rwp-59, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  6. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 155, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  8. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting trend output in the Euro area," HWWA Discussion Papers 109, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  10. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  12. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  13. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
  14. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  15. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.

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