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Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?

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Author Info
Alain Guay () (Center for Research on Economic Fluctuations and Employment, UQAM)
Pierre St-Amant () (Bank of Canada)

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Abstract

In this paper, the authors examine how well the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and the band-pass filter recently proposed by Baxter and King (BK) extract the business-cycle component of macroeconomic time series. The authors assess these filters using two different definitions of the business-cycle component. First, they define that component to be fluctuations lasting no fewer than six and no more than thirty-two quarters; this is the definition of business-cycle frequencies used by Baxter and King. Second, they define the business-cycle component on the basis of a decomposition of the series into permanent and transitory components. In both cases the conclusions are the same. The filters perform adequately when the spectrum of the original series has a peak at business-cycle frequencies. When the spectrum is dominated by low frequencies, the filters provide a distorted business cycle. Since most macroeconomic series have the typical Granger shape, the HP and BK filters perform poorly in terms of identifying the business cycles of these series.

Dans la présente étude, les auteurs cherchent à évaluer l'efficacité avec laquelle le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott (HP) et le filtre passe-bande récemment proposé par Baxter et King (BK) permettent d'isoler la composante cyclique des séries macroéconomiques. Ils utilisent deux définitions du cycle économique pour comparer la performance de ces filtres. Selon la première définition (celle que retiennent Baxter et King), la composante cyclique correspond à des fluctuations d'une durée minimale de six trimestres et maximale de trente-deux trimestres. L'autre définition du cycle consiste dans la décomposition de la série en deux composantes, l'une permanente et l'autre transitoire. Les auteurs parviennent aux mêmes conclusions peu importe la définition utilisée. Les filtres donnent des résultats satisfaisants lorsque le spectre de la série initiale atteint un sommet au voisinage des fréquences comprises entre six et trente-deux trimestres. Lorsque le spectre est dominé par les basses fréquences, le cycle économique obtenu donne une image faussée de la réalité. Comme la forme spectrale de la plupart des séries macroéconomiques ressemble à celle que Granger a mise en lumière, les filtres HP et BK réussissent mal à isoler la composante cyclique de ces séries.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 53.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:53

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Related research
Keywords: Mechanical filters business cycles spectrum

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Julien GARNIER, 2003. "Has the Similarity of Business Cycles in Europe Increased with the Monetary Integration," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/12, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Valle e Azevedo, João, 2007. "Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series," MPRA Paper 6574, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2007. "Early warning or just wise after the event? The problem of using cyclically adjusted budget deficits for fiscal surveillance," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  6. John P. Jackson & Mark J. Manning, 2007. "Central Bank intraday collateral policy and implications for tiering in rtgs payment systems," DNB Working Papers 129, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bernd Suessmuth, 2002. "National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dufourt, 2005. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models and the Beveridge-Nelson Facts," Macroeconomics 0501003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Hughes Hallet & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2007. "Early Warning or Just Wise After the Event?," DNB Working Papers 124, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Witold Witkiewicz, 2002. "The Use of the HP-filter in Constructing Real Estate Cycle Indicators," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 65-88. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a frequency domain approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  13. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  14. Frederic Dufourt, 2000. "Dynamic Properties of the New Neoclassical Synthesis Model of Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0389, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kaloyan Ganev, 2004. "Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria," Macroeconomics 0409010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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