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Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Christopher Ragan

Abstract

In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to compare the nominal yields on two assets of different maturities and attribute the difference in nominal yields to differences in expected inflation over the two horizons (assuming a constant term premium). The results for the United States and Canada over the past several years suggest that there is a significant static element to agents' inflation expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9502003.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 03 Feb 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9502003

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References

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 135-42, February.
  2. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-16.
  3. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," NBER Working Papers 3751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  7. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  8. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1994. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Econometrics 9406002, EconWPA.
  10. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Macroeconomics 9502005, EconWPA.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December.
  12. David Backus & John Driffill, 1984. "Inflation and Reputation," Working Papers 560, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Pesando, James E, 1978. "On the Efficiency of the Bond Market: Some Canadian Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1057-76, December.
  14. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-14, October-D.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
  2. Hugo Oliveros C., 1999. "Expectativas:Una Aproximación A Través De Modelos De Escogencia Discreta," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002697, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. David R. Johnson, 1997. "Expected Inflation in Canada 1988-1995: An Evaluation of Bank of Canada Credibility and the Effect of Inflation Targets," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 233-258, September.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002558, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA.
  6. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
  7. St-Amant, P., 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Working Papers 96-2, Bank of Canada.
  8. Hugo Oliveros, . "Expectativas: Una Aproximación a Través de Modelos de Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 137, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Seminar Papers 594, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  10. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society.
  11. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
  12. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Vplyv inflačných očakávaní na vývoj úrokových sadzieb v krajinách Višegrádskej štvorky
    [Inflation expectations and interest rates development in the Visegrad countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 17059, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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