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Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations

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  • Tomáš Holub
  • Jaromír Hurník

Abstract

This paper focuses on the Czech Republic's first ten years of experience with its inflation-targeting regime. Under this regime, the Czech Republic has successfully achieved disinflation. However, there were two periods of substantial inflation target undershooting and economic slack, related to two episodes of sharp exchange rate appreciation. Dealing with exchange rate volatility has been a key challenge for inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. Despite the missed targets, though, the regime has been successful at anchoring the inflation expectations of analysts and firms close to the announced targets, suggesting that it has worked well as a nominal anchor for the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 44 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 67-86

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:44:y:2008:i:6:p:67-86

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: expectations surveys; inflation expectations; inflation targeting;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2010. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp426, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
  4. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008. "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 2, pages 18-34 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Karel Musil & Jiri Podpiera & Lubos Ruzicka & Michal Skorepa & Katerina S, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number 01 edited by Katerina Smidkova, August.
  6. Katerina Smidkova & Aleš Bulíø, 2008. "Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 398-405, December.
  7. Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations from the CNB’s Inflation Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 425-433, December.
  8. Jaromír Hurník & Ondøej Kameník & Jan Vlèek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic Through the Lens of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 454-469, December.
  9. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
  10. Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "The History of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic through Optic of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 8, pages 102-116 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  11. Tomas Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 4, pages 47-56 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  12. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Undershooting of the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 482-492, December.
  13. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 406-424, December.

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