Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The term structure of real rates and expected inflation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Andrew Ang
  • Geert Bekaert

Abstract

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates or expected inflation, or both. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the unconditional real rate curve is fairly flat at 1.44%, but slightly humped. In one regime, the real term structure is steeply downward sloping. Real rates (nominal rates) are pro-cyclical (counter-cyclical) and inflation is negatively correlated with real rates. An inflation risk premium that increases with the horizon fully accounts for the generally upward sloping nominal term structure. We find that expected inflation drives about 80% of the variation of nominal yields at both short and long maturities, but during normal times, all of the variation of nominal term spreads is due to expected inflation and inflation risk.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0403/ang_realrates.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages:

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:mar:x:3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Email:
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Boudoukh, Jacob, 1993. "An Equilibrium Model of Nominal Bond Prices with Inflation-Output Correlation and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 636-65, August.
  4. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1990. "An Anlysis Of The Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," Papers 353, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  6. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
  10. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
  11. Jacob Boudoukh, 1993. "An equilibrium model of nominal bond prices with inflation-output correlation and stochastic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 636-680.
  12. Pennacchi, George G, 1991. "Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 53-86.
  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  15. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2004. "Regime Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 396-409, October.
  17. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  18. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  19. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  20. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  22. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  25. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280.
  28. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, 02.
  30. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  31. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  33. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
  35. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  36. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September.
  37. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611.
  38. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models," Staff Report 167, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  39. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December.
  40. Eli M. Remolona & Michael R. Wickens & Frank F. Gong, 1998. "What was the market's view of U.K. monetary policy? Estimating inflation risk and expected inflation with indexed bonds," Staff Reports 57, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. David G. Barr & John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," NBER Working Papers 5821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  43. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
  44. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  45. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  46. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  47. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  48. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March.
  49. Pietro Veronesi & Francis Yared, 1999. "Short and Long Horizon Term and Inflation Risk Premia in the US Term Structure: Evidence from an Integrated Model for Nominal and Real Bond Prices under Regime Shifts," CRSP working papers 508, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  50. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  51. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D & Hamilton, James D, 1986. "Estimation of Unobserved Expected Monthly Inflation Using Kalman Filtering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(2), pages 147-60, April.
  52. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
  53. Martin D. D. Evans, 2003. "Real risk, inflation risk, and the term structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 345-389, 04.
  54. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
  55. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2004:i:mar:x:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.