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Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach

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  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-4V76281-4/2/a3380fd1704a4986d8bc137e03484be1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 150 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 297-311

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:150:y:2009:i:2:p:297-311

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Forecast combinations Regime switches Short term interest rates Expectations hypothesis;

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