This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Mark W. Watson (Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Economics, Princeton University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, USA)
James H. Stock (Department of Economics, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, USA)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper uses forecast combination methods to forecast output growth in a seven-country quarterly economic data set covering 1959-1999, with up to 73 predictors per country. Although the forecasts based on individual predictors are unstable over time and across countries, and on average perform worse than an autoregressive benchmark, the combination forecasts often improve upon autoregressive forecasts. Despite the unstable performance of the constituent forecasts, the most successful combination forecasts, like the mean, are the least sensitive to the recent performance of the individual forecasts. While consistent with other evidence on the success of simple combination forecasts, this finding is difficult to explain using the theory of combination forecasting in a stationary environment. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.928
File Format: text/html
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 405-430
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:6:p:405-430

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Sancetta, A., 2007. "Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0718, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  15. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  16. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  17. Sancetta, A., 2005. "Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0517, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  18. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? LogEc provides statistical analysis about downloads from this service (and others).

This page was last updated on 2008-9-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.