Federal funds rate prediction
AbstractWe examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (i) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii) the best forecasting model is a simple univariate model where the future FF rate is forecast using the current difference between the FF rate and its target; (iii) combining the forecasts from various models generally yields modest improvements on the best performing model. These results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2002-005.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
- Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Working Papers wp04-12, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-07-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2002-07-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FIN-2002-07-04 (Finance)
- NEP-MON-2002-07-04 (Monetary Economics)
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