Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing
AbstractThis paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model which combines the multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing techniques. The model outperforms a random walk at short horizons and its superior forecastability appears to be robust over different sample spans. Our finding hinges on the fact that exchange rates tend to follow highly persistent trends and accordingly, the key to beating the random walk is to identify these trends. An attempt to link the trends in exchange rates to the underlying macroeconomic determinants further reveals that fundamentals-based linear models generally fail to capture the persistence in exchange rates and thus are incapable of outforecasting the random walk.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UMBC Department of Economics in its series UMBC Economics Department Working Papers with number 09-115.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision: 01 Nov 2009
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Postal: UMBC Department of Economics 1000 Hilltop Circle Baltimore MD 21250, USA
Web page: http://www.umbc.edu/economics
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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