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The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets

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  • Kodongo, Odongo
  • Ojah, Kalu

Abstract

We examine the nexus between real foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows using monthly data for the period 1997:1 to 2009:12 for Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. We analyze the full sample period and two sub-periods, distinguished by the relative volume and volatility of portfolio flows. We find international portfolio flows, in Africa, to be non-persistent and relatively volatile. Granger causality tests and innovation accounting from vector autoregressions show that the dynamic relationship between portfolio flows and foreign exchange rates is both country-dependent and time-varying; and these findings are robust to alternative VAR specifications.

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  • Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2012. "The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:71-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.01.004
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    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 5615, CESifo.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    5. Patricia Lindelwa Makoni, 2020. "Foreign Portfolio Investments, Exchange Rates and Capital Openness: A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 100-113.
    6. Ahmed S. Alimi & Oladotun D. Olaniran, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Price - Exchange Rate Nexus: New Insights from Influential African Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 66-79, June.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    8. Moussa Wajdi, 2019. "The dynamic relationship between stock index and exchange rate: Evidence for Tunis," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4.
    9. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2022. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign direct investment in Africa: Does financial development matter?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 878-898, May.
    10. Kuziva Mamvura & Mabutho Sibanda & Rajendra Rajaram, 2020. "Causal Dynamics among Foreign Portfolio Investment Volatility, Financial Deepening and Capital Markets in Low Income Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(1-2), pages 20-38, January-J.
    11. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    12. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2014. "Dynamic linkage between real exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from developed and emerging Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Kinza Yousfani & Farhana Khowaja & Ahmed Ali Yousfani, 2019. "The Commitment of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment on the Monetary Development of Pakistan," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 7-12, May.
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    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 70-92.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Net portfolio inflows; Africa's capital markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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