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Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans
Richard K. Lyons

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Abstract

We address whether transaction flows in foreign exchange markets convey fundamental information. Our GE model includes fundamental information that first manifests at the micro level and is not symmetrically observed by all agents. This produces foreign exchange transactions that play a central role in information aggregation, providing testable links between transaction flows, exchange rates, and future fundamentals. We test these links using data on all end-user currency trades received at Citibank over 6.5 years, a sample sufficiently long to analyze real-time forecasts at the quarterly horizon. The predictions are borne out in four empirical findings that define this paper's main contribution: (1) transaction flows forecast future macro variables such as output growth, money growth, and inflation, (2) transaction flows forecast these macro variables significantly better than the exchange rate does, (3) transaction flows (proprietary) forecast future exchange rates, and (4) the forecasted part of fundamentals is better at explaining exchange rates than standard measured fundamentals.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13151.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13151

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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  1. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Geir Høidal Bjønnes, Dagfinn Rime and Haakon O.Aa. Solheim, 2004. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 391, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chris D'Souza, 2007. "Where Does Price Discovery Occur in FX Markets?," Working Papers 07-52, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Berger & Alain Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis & Alex Saunders, 2009. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009_25, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2008. "Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Michael Melvin & Christian Saborowski & Michael Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2009. "Bank of England Interest Rate Announcements and the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Albuquerque, Rui & de Francisco, Eva & Marques, Luis, 2006. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-331, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80. [Downloadable!]
  16. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  17. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2007. "A monetary model of the exchange rate with informational frictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  18. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Osler, Carol & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Price Discovery in Currency Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-351, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  20. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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