Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy
AbstractThis paper describes a method for calculating daily realtime estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to find real-time estimates of GDP, inflation, unemployment, or any other macroeconomic variable of interest. In this paper, I focus on the problem of estimating the current level of and growth rate in GDP. I construct daily real-time estimates of GDP that incorporate public information known on the day in question. The real-time estimates produced by the model are uniquely suited to studying how perceived developments in the macroeconomy are linked to asset prices over a wide range of frequencies. The estimates also provide, for the first time, daily time series that can be used in practical policy decisions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.
Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Other versions of this item:
- Martin D.D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," NBER Working Papers 11064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin D, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Nowcasting (economics) in Wikipedia (English)
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