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Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University and the National Bureau of Economic Research)

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Abstract

This paper describes a method for calculating daily realtime estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to find real-time estimates of GDP, inflation, unemployment, or any other macroeconomic variable of interest. In this paper, I focus on the problem of estimating the current level of and growth rate in GDP. I construct daily real-time estimates of GDP that incorporate public information known on the day in question. The real-time estimates produced by the model are uniquely suited to studying how perceived developments in the macroeconomy are linked to asset prices over a wide range of frequencies. The estimates also provide, for the first time, daily time series that can be used in practical policy decisions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2005:q:3:a:4

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443. [Downloadable!]
  3. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
    Other versions:
  4. Liu, H & Hall, Stephen G, 2001. "Creating High-Frequency National Accounts with State-Space Modelling: A Monte Carlo Experiment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 441-49, September.
  5. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 631, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," ECARES Working Papers 2008_008, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de España Working Papers 0807, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Alastair Cunningham & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A State Space Approach To The Policymaker's Data Uncertainty Problem," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 168, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "A Note on Monitoring Daily Economic Activity Via Electronic Transaction Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-23, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-17.

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