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Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions

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  • Tara M. Sinclair

    ()
    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

Abstract

Recent research examining U.S. macroeconomic data suggests that revisions may be much more important than traditionally assumed. This paper extends the analysis to Chinese data, where there has been substantial debate about data quality for some time. The key finding in this paper is that indeed the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions are not well-behaved, but that they are not much different from U.S. macroeconomic data revisions.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/Sinclair_IIEPWP2012-09.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy in its series Working Papers with number 2012-09.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-09

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Related research

Keywords: forecasting; China; Real-Time Data; Data Revisions;

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References

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  1. Angus Maddison, 2006. "DO OFFICIAL STATISTICS EXAGGERATE CHINA's GDP GROWTH? A REPLY TO CARSTEN HOLZ," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 121-126, 03.
  2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
  3. Frederick Joutz & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Data revisions and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1011-1016.
  4. Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010. "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
  5. Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Harry X. Wu, 2007. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, February.
  7. James E. Kennedy, 1990. "An analysis of revisions to the industrial production index," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 109, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "China'S Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison'S Estimates? Response To Angus Maddison'S Reply," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(3), pages 471-475, 09.
  9. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Chadwick C. Curtis & Nelson Mark, 2010. "Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?," NBER Working Papers 16154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Holz, Carsten, 2013. "The Quality of China's GDP Statistics," MPRA Paper 51864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Christopher F Baum & Marketa W. Halova & Alexander Kurov, 2013. "Does Regular Economic News from Emerging Countries Move Markets? Evidence from Chinese Macro Announcements," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 834, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Feb 2014.

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