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Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets

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Author Info
Paolo Pasquariello
Clara Vega

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Abstract

We study the role played by private and public information in the process of price formation in the U.S. Treasury bond market. To guide our analysis, we develop a parsimonious model of speculative trading in the presence of two realistic market frictions -- information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders -- and a public signal. We test its equilibrium implications by analyzing the response of two-year, five-year, and ten-year U.S. bond yields to order flow and real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find strong evidence of informational effects in the U.S. Treasury bond market: unanticipated order flow has a significant and permanent impact on daily bond yield changes during both announcement and non-announcement days. Our analysis further shows that, consistent with our stylized model, the contemporaneous correlation between order flow and yield changes is higher when the dispersion of beliefs among market participants is high and public announcements are noisy.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 874.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Keywords: Bond market ; Bonds;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chris D'Souza & Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets," Working Papers 07-27, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michel van der Wel & Albert Menkveld & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Are Market Makers Uninformed and Passive? Signing Trades in The Absence of Quotes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-046/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mardi Dungey & Michael McKenzie & Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Empirical Evidence On Jumps In The Term Structure Of The Us Treasury Market," CAMA Working Papers 2007-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Trading activity and exchange rates in high-frequency EBS data," International Finance Discussion Papers 903, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2009. "Exchange Rate Management in Emerging Markets: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. John A Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2008-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures," Staff Reports 307, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Menkveld, Albert J. & Cheung, Yiu C. & Jong, Frank de, 2006. "Euro-Area Sovereign Yield Dynamics: the role of order imbalance," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-25, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael J. Fleming & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2007. "How do treasury dealers manage their positions?," Staff Reports 299, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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