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Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators

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Arturo Estrella
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with one- to three-quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond one quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/003465398557320
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 45-61
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:1:p:45-61

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  6. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoit Mojon, 1995. "Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply : The Real Effects," Working Papers 1995-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Robert D. Laurent, 1989. "Testing the "spread"," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul, pages 22-34. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Using econometric models to predict recessions," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 14-25. [Downloadable!]
  13. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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