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Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply: The Real Effects

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  • Fernando Barran
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Benoît Mojon

Abstract

We analyse the information content of the relative structure of interest rates on economic activity. Over and above currently defined spreads, we have defined spreads based on bank interest rates. In order to analyse the information content of financial variables on economic activity, measured through a set of proxy variables like output, investment, industrial production, employment, private consumption, durable goods consumption and inflation, Granger-causality tests are performed. The predictive power of spreads is then compared with other inancial variables such as interest rates and monetary and credit aggregates. The tests are performed on five major OECD countries. A major conclusion is that 'bank' spreads are informative about economic activity even though the relationship between inancial aggregates and real activity has weakened.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1995-01.

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Date of creation: Mar 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-01

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Keywords: ; Interest Rates; Banking system; Credit; monetary policy; Statistical tests; Econometrics;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benoît Mojon & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Asymétries financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 41-60.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1995. "L'Europe à géométrie variable, une analyse économique," Working Papers 1995-04, CEPII research center.
  4. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  5. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  6. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.

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