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The federal funds rate as an indicator of monetary policy: evidence from the 1980s

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Author Info
Nathan S. Balke
Kenneth M. Emery

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Abstract

Recently, several economists have argued that movements in the federal funds rate are a good proxy for changes in monetary policy. In this article, Nathan Balke and Kenneth Emery critically examine this view and the evidence supporting it. Using simple vector autoregressions, they find that before 1980 the correlations between the federal funds rate and other important macroeconomic variables are consistent with a traditional monetary policy interpretation of the federal funds rate. However, they show that after 1982 the relationships between the federal funds rate and other macroeconomic variables change significantly. Most important, the correlations between the federal funds rate and other macroeconomic variables observed during the 1980s are not as consistent with a traditional monetary policy view of the federal funds rate as they were before 1980. ; Balke and Emery's work highlights how relationships between important macroeconomic variables can change when institutions or policy regimes change. While the federal funds rate may still be a good indicator of monetary policy, its relationship with other important macroeconomic variables is now clearly different from what it was before 1980.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (1994)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
Pages: 1-15
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1994:i:qi:p:1-15

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Keywords: Interest rates Economic indicators

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  2. Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
  3. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Laurence M. Ball, 1990. "Time-Consistent Policy and Persistent Changes in Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1993. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  12. George A. Kahn, 1989. "The changing interest sensitivity of the U.S. economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 13-34. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. F. Barran, V. Coudert, B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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