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The Liquidity Effect: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility

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In the recent SVAR literature, the liquidity effect has been studied by imposing a variety of identifying restrictions required under the assumption that the SVAR fundamental disturbances are homoscedastic. Using typical SVAR processes, we first show that this assumption is not supported by the data and that the SVAR residuals are not characterized by common conditional scedastic structures. Under time-varying conditional volatility of residuals, we are then able to formally test typical sets of restrictions that have been imposed in previous studies. Our results indicate that to obtain a well characterized liquidity effect, one must measure monetary policy shocks as innovations in the Federal funds rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 40.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: May 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:40

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Keywords: conditional heteroskedasticity; structural vector autoregressive process; recursive system; simultaneous system; short-run elasticities; dynamic responses;

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References

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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
  2. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pagan, A.R. & Robertson, J.C., 1994. "Resolving the Liquidity Effect," Papers 277, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
  5. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  7. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. James Dunn, 1973. "A note on a sufficiency condition for uniqueness of a restricted factor matrix," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 141-143, March.
  11. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  12. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  13. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171.
  15. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  17. Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  18. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.

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