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The Liquidity Effect: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility

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Author Info
Michel Normandin (CREFE/UQAM)
Louis Phaneuf (CREFE/UQAM)

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Abstract

In the recent SVAR literature, the liquidity effect has been studied by imposing a variety of identifying restrictions required under the assumption that the SVAR fundamental disturbances are homoscedastic. Using typical SVAR processes, we first show that this assumption is not supported by the data and that the SVAR residuals are not characterized by common conditional scedastic structures. Under time-varying conditional volatility of residuals, we are then able to formally test typical sets of restrictions that have been imposed in previous studies. Our results indicate that to obtain a well characterized liquidity effect, one must measure monetary policy shocks as innovations in the Federal funds rate. This paper is available at ftp://crefe.dse.uqam.ca/pub/cahiers/cah40.ps Additional tables are at ftp://crefe.dse.uqam.ca/pub/cahiers/cah40t.ps The whole WP list is at http://www.er.uqam.ca/nobel/crefe/cahiers.html

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9607001.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jul 1996
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9607001

Note: 25+7 pages, 2 Postscript files
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pagan, A.R. & Robertson, J.C., 1994. "Resolving the Liquidity Effect," Papers 277, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
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  6. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
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  9. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. James Dunn, 1973. "A note on a sufficiency condition for uniqueness of a restricted factor matrix," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 141-143, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini, 2003. "Testing for Financial Contagion between Developed and Emerging Markets during the 1997 East Asian Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive 370, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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