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Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis Identification Through Heteroscedasticity

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Andrea Cipollini
Panicos Demetriades ()

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Abstract

This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, as suggested by Sentana and Fiorentini (2001). We find that while tight monetary policy helped to defend the exchange rate during tranquil periods, it had the opposite effect during the Asian crisis.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ00-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 00/11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision: Feb 2002
Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:00/11

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis; Identification;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
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  20. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Atish R. Ghosh & Gabriela Basurto, 2000. "The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/19, International Monetary Fund.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guimarães, Bernardo & Soares Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bettina Becker & Stephan G Hall, 2005. "Non-Linear Properties of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 13, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ha Y. Lee & Roberto Rigobón & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/135, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B.V.G., 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness," Discussion Paper 2007-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Andrianova, Svetlana, 2005. "Sources and Effectiveness of Financial Development: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Working Papers RP2005/76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  7. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 12395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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