In this paper the interest rate-exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of interest rate defence are investigated theoretically and empirically. We construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating Taylor rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002). Mixing the macroeconomic theory of exchange rate determination and the noise trading approach to asset price volatility, we present a model with multiple equilibria, which thereafter implies a possible switching between the regimes of high and low volatility of the exchange rates. The theoretical model motivates us to adopt a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. By investigating the data of Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, Hong Kong, and Turkey, it is shown that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here support the views that high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, our findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In addition, this paper provides some evidences supporting the view of ``fear of floating''.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
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Other versions:
Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002.
"Fear of floating,"
MPRA Paper
14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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