Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity

Contents:

Author Info

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    ()
    (London South Bank University)

  • Andrea Cipollini

    ()
    (Queen Mary, University of London - Department of Economics)

  • Panicos Demetriades

    ()
    (University of Leicester - Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon (2002). We find that while tight monetary policy helped to defend the exchange rate during tranquil periods, it had the opposite effect during the Asian crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://www.ceistorvergata.it/repec/rpaper/No-23-Caporale,Cipollini,Demetriades.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 23.

as in new window
Length: 28
Date of creation: 23 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:23

Contact details of provider:
Postal: CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
Phone: +390672595601
Fax: +39062020687
Email:
Web page: http://www.ceistorvergata.it
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
Email:
Web: http://www.ceistorvergata.it

Related research

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis; Identification;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  2. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  5. Evan Tanner, 1999. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 99/114, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/170, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," Working Papers 135, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Fank Smets, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The Role of The Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 597-616, September.
  14. Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "The Liquidity Effect: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 40, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  15. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  16. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
  18. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  19. Dekle, Robert & Hsiao, Cheng & Wang, Siyan, 2001. " Do High Interest Rates Appreciate Exchange Rates during Crisis? The Korean Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(3), pages 359-80, July.
  20. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  21. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 211-21, April.
  22. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "Interest Rates, Risk, and Imperfect Markets: Puzzles and Policies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 59-76, Summer.
  23. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Barbara Piazzi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.