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Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale () (London South Bank University)
Andrea Cipollini () (Queen Mary, University of London - Department of Economics)
Panicos Demetriades () (University of Leicester - Department of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon (2002). We find that while tight monetary policy helped to defend the exchange rate during tranquil periods, it had the opposite effect during the Asian crisis.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 23.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 23 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:23

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis; Identification;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ha Y. Lee & Roberto Rigobón & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/135, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Goderis, Benedikt, 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Guimarães, Bernardo & Soares Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bettina Becker & Stephan G Hall, 2005. "Non-Linear Properties of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 13, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Andrianova, Svetlana, 2005. "Sources and Effectiveness of Financial Development: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Working Papers RP2005/76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 12395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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