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The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises

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  • David M. Gould
  • Steven B. Kamin
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    Abstract

    This paper addresses the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises. Some observers have argued that a tightening of monetary policy is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate, restore confidence, and lay the groundwork for an eventual recovery of economic activity. Others have argued that by raising interest rates (which reduces the ability of borrowers to repay loans and thereby weakens the banking system), tightening may further reduce investor confidence and lead to further weakening--not strengthening--of domestic currencies. ; This debate, which became highly charged during the Asian financial crisis, remains unresolved. A key reason is that, because of the endogeneity of interest rates with respect to exchange rates and investor expectations, it is difficult to use statistical analysis to identify the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate. In our research, we use measures of international credit spreads and of domestic stock prices as proxies for investor concerns about creditworthiness and country risk in order to better identify the impact of monetary policies on the exchange rate. Using weekly data from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Mexico, we find that credit spreads and stock prices exert significant impacts on exchange rates during financial crises, but interest rates still are not estimated to have significant effects. We conclude that while monetary policy probably does exert an important influence over exchange rates, this most likely takes place slowly, as central banks attempt to establish credibility, and over longer periods of time than can be captured in our analysis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 669.

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    Date of creation: 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:669

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    Related research

    Keywords: Interest rates ; Financial crises ; Foreign exchange rates;

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    References

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    1. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    2. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    3. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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    Cited by:
    1. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003.
    2. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Eda Gulsen & Ibrahim Burak Kanli & Neslihan Kaya, 2010. "Kuresel Kriz Doneminde TCMB’nin Faiz Kararlarinin Kur Uzerindeki Etkisine Dair Bir Analiz," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1011, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Term premium and long-range dependence in volatility : A FIGARCH-M estimation on some Asian countries," THEMA Working Papers 2002-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    5. Boorman, Jack & Lane, Timothy & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Bulir, Ales & Ghosh, Atish R. & Hamann, Javier & Mourmouras, Alex & Phillips, Steven, 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-67, December.
    6. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B., 2002. "Financial crises, monetary policy and financial fragility: A second-generation model of currency crises," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152957, Tilburg University.
    7. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Analysis of Short-term Exchange Rate Movements in Korea: Application of an Extended Mundell-Fleming Model," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 145-151.
    8. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Grier, Kevin & Lin, Shu, 2010. "Do high interest rates deter speculative attacks? - Evidence and some theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 938-950, September.
    10. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.
    11. Inci Gumus, 2002. "Effects of the Interest Rate Defense on Exchange Rates During the 1994 Crisis in Turkey," Working Papers 0214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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