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Fear of floating

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Calvo, Guillermo

Abstract

Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions--hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so. We find that countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not--there seems to be an epidemic case of “fear of floating.”

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14000.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Publication status: Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics 2.117(2002): pp. 379-408
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14000

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Keywords: exchange rates pegs reserves interest rates credibility fear of floating;

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References

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  1. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A & Guidotti, Pablo E, 1993. "On the Flexibility of Monetary Policy: The Case of the Optimal Inflation Tax," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 667-87, July.
  5. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2001. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  10. Canzoneri, Matthew B, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1056-70, December.
  11. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1999. "On the use of reserve requirements in dealing with capital flow problems," MPRA Paper 13703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 1999. "Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Corruption and the exchange rate regime
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-11-28 15:56:00
  2. The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have we Learnt? (Claudio Borio)
    by Nicolas Cachanosky in Punto de Vista Economico on 2012-12-10 21:15:49
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