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Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks

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Author Info
Kenneth N. Kuttner () (Institute for International Economics)
Adam S. Posen () (Institute for International Economics)

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Abstract

Recently, great attention has been focused on the impact of exchange rate regimes, just as previous empirical research examined central bank autonomy and announced targets for domestic monetary policy. To date, however, these three elements of monetary frameworks have been assessed in isolation from one another, and all have been viewed in terms of a unidimensional spectrum of fixity versus flexibility. Using a newly-constructed dataset, this paper jointly analyzes and compares all three elements' effects on inflation and exchange rate behavior. The results show that each of the three elements has independent and distinct effects on nominal outcomes. Key findings include: (1) although hard pegs do tend to reduce inflation and attenuate exchange rate fluctuations within some range, they are clearly characterized by large devaluations; (2) central bank autonomy is associated with a more stable exchange rate and lower inflation; and (3) explicit inflation targeting reduces both inflation and its persistence, consistent with the view that inflation targeting increases flexibility through transparency. These results raise the possibility that a combination of central bank autonomy, inflation targeting, and a free float might offer the same benefits as any intermediate exchange rate regime on its own, without the proclivity to occasional large depreciations.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Working Paper Series with number WP01-7.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp01-7

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; exchange rates; central bank independence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  3. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-59, July.
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  15. Laubach, T. & Posen, A.S., 1997. "Disciplined Discretion: Monetary Targeting in Germany and Switzerland," Princeton Essays in International Economics 206, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "What should central banks do?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Eijffinger, S-C-W & de Haan, J, 1996. "The Political Economy of Central-Bank Independence," Princeton Studies in International Economics 19, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  26. Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 253-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2000. "Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP00-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Taner Yigit, 2007. "Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact," Departmental Working Papers 0706, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tiff Macklem, 2005. "Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 475-494. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eduard Hochreiter & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Georg Winckler, 2002. "Monetary Union: European Lessons, Latin American Prospects," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 167, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Yifan Hu, 2003. "Empirical Investigations of Inflation Targeting," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eichengreen, Barry & Taylor, Alan M, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas," CEPR Discussion Papers 3909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti, 2008. "Linear Contracts, Common Agency and Central Bank Preference Uncertainty," Working Papers 115, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Enrico Marchetti, 2005. "Supply-Side Fiscal Policy, Conservativeness, And Central Bank Transparency," Working Papers 77, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andreas Freytag, 2004. "EMU Enlargement: Which Concept of Convergence to Apply?," Jenaer Schriften zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 11/2004, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Enrico Marchetti, 2005. "Unions, fiscal policy and central bank transparency," Macroeconomics 0508004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alicia García Herrero & Pedro del Río López, 2003. "Implications of the design of monetary policy for financial stability," Macroeconomics 0304008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kenneth Kuttner & Adam Posen, 2007. "Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007-5, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2004. "A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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