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Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules

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Author Info

  • Tony Cavoli

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia)

  • Ramkishen Rajan

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia)

Abstract

While favoring relatively more flexible regimes, emerging economies in East Asia and elsewhere appear to heavily manage their currencies despite being officially described as “floaters”. In other words, revealed preferences of regional monetary authorities appear to indicate a high degree of “fear of floating”. The paper first explores the reasons for this fear of floating. It then goes on to examine the case for and operational mechanics behind an open inflation targeting regime which has increasingly been advocated for small and open economies in East Asia and elsewhere. The paper also attempts a reconciliation between the discussion of analytics behind open economy inflation targeting and its implications for exchange rate design, on the one hand, and actual exchange rate ongoings in East Asia, on the other.

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File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/papers/0309.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies in its series Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers with number 2003-09.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2003-09

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Related research

Keywords: exchange rate; East Asia; fear of floating; impossible Trinity inflation targeting; monetary policy rules;

References

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  1. Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Currency Hedging and Goods Trade," NBER Working Papers 6742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Is the MCI a Useful Signal of Monetary Policy Conditions? An Empirical Investigation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 413-37, November.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  6. Thomas D. Willett, 2002. "Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: Feasible Options for Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-18, Claremont Colleges.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
  9. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  10. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Exchange Reserves Management in Indonesia in the Context of East Asian Monetary Regionalism," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-02, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry, 2001. "What problems can dollarization solve?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 267-277, April.
  12. G. Bird & R. Rajan, 2001. "Would International Currency Taxation and Currency Stabilisation in Developing Countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 21-38.
  13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  14. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Chung-Hua Shen, 2002. "Are crisis-induced devaluations contractionary?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
  17. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  19. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "International Financial Liberalisation in Developing Countries: Lessons from Recent Experiences," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-20, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  22. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  23. Peter B. Kenen, 2000. "Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  24. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  25. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Exchange Rate Arrangements for East Asia Post-Crisis: Examining the Case for Open Economy Inflation Targeting," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-10, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  2. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Reserve Management in Indonesia in the Context of East Asian Monetary Regionalism," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  3. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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