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Currency Hedging and Goods Trade

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Author Info
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

A puzzle in empirical international finance is the difficulty in finding a large and negative effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade. A common explanation is the availability of hedging instruments. This paper examines the empirical validity of this explanation using data on over 1,000 country pairs. Which countries have currency hedging instruments is not perfectly observable. This paper deals with the problem by specifying an endogenous regime-switching regression. There are two main findings. First, there is no evidence in the data to support the validity of the hedging hypothesis. Second, for country pairs with large trade potential, exchange rate volatility deters goods trade to an extent much larger than that typically has been documented in the literature (without using the switching regression specification).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6742.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Publication status: published as European Economic Review, Vol. 43, no. 7 (June 1999): 1371-1394.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6742

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-68, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Makin, John H, 1978. "Portfolio Theory and the Problem of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 517-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Shang-Jin Wei & Jungshik Kim, 1997. "The Big Players in the Foreign Exchange Market: Do They Trade on Information or Noise?," NBER Working Papers 6256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  7. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Institutional Markets, Financial Marketing, and Financial Innovation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 541-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. repec:fth:michin:382 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cuny, Charles J, 1993. "The Role of Liquidity in Futures Market Innovations," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 57-78. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David Hargreaves & Andy Brookes & Carrick Lucas & Bruce White, 2000. "Can hedging insulate firms from exchange rate risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joseph P. Byrne & Julia Darby & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "US Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Real Sectoral Bilateral Analysis," Working Papers 2006_9, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Robert Dekle & Heajin Ryoo, 2002. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Financing Constraints, Hedging, and Exports: Evidence from Firm Level Data," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-13, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jens, EISENSCHMIDT & Klaus, WAELDE, 2003. "International Trade, Hedging and the Demand for Forward Contracts," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2003022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  8. Klaassen, F., 1999. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Discussion Paper 73, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Helmut Herwartz & Henning Weber, 2007. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Growth - A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear (Forecasting) Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Égert, Balázs & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes, foreign exchange volatility and export performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another blur project?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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