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Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Andrew G. Haldane
Nicoletta Batini

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Abstract

This paper evaluates a class of simple monetary policy rules which feed back from explicit forecasts of future inflation - inflation forecast-based (IFB) rules. These rules aim to mimic current monetary policy practices among the inflation-targeting countries, where policy decisions are based on inflation forecasts. The rules themselves are evaluated using simulations from a small, rational expectations, open-economy macro-model. IFB rules are found to perform well in comparison with other simple rules, such as the Taylor rule. The reasons for this are: first, because they embody the lags in monetary transmission, aligning explicitly the control and the feedback variables of the policymaker; second, because IFB rules are capable of smoothing output by as much as is possible with rules which target output directly - for example, through variations in the forecast horizon; and third, because IFB rules implicitly condition on all state variables, and thus are information-efficient. For these reasons, inflation-targeting rules with an explicitly forward-looking dimension are found to take us within reach of the fully-optimal rule.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6543.

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Date of creation: May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6543

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References listed on IDEAS
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  11. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism - Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 95/75, International Monetary Fund.
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  31. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G., 1995. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1626, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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