Efficient rules for monetary policy

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Efficient rules for monetary policy

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Laurence Ball (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

This paper defines an efficient rule for monetary policy as one that minimises a weighted sum of output variance and inflation variance. It derives several results about the efficiency of alternative rules in a simple macroeconomic model. First, efficient rules can be expressed as "Taylor rules" in which interest rates respond to output and inflation. But the coefficients in efficient Taylor rules differ from the coefficients that fit actual policy in the United States. Second, inflation targets are efficient. Indeed, the set of efficient rules is equivalent to the set of inflation-target policies with different speeds of adjustment. Finally, nominal-income targets are not merely inefficient, but disastrous: they imply that output and inflation have infinite variances.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number G97/3.

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Length: 22p
Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1997/03

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Dale W. Henderson & Warwick J. McKibbin, 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," International Finance Discussion Papers 458, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 433-494. [Downloadable!]
Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Glenn Rudebusch, 1995. "What are the lags in monetary policy?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb 3. [Downloadable!]
West, Kenneth D, 1986. "Targeting Nominal Income: A Note," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1077-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kenneth D. West, 1986. "Targeting Nominal Income: A Note," NBER Working Papers 1835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Matheny, K-J, 1996. "Output Targeting and an Argument for Stabilization Policies," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1092, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Lars E O Svensson, . "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Working Papers 4439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Hall, R.E. & Mankiw, N.G., 1993. "Nominal Income Targeting," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1650, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
Taylor, John B., 1985. "What would nominal GNP targetting do to the business cycle?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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